41 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Saturday.
28 F. average high on December 12.
37 F. high on December 12, 2014.
December 13, 1821: An extended cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling. Highs were below zero for all but one day of a 19-day stretch.
Freakish December: 1 in 30 Year Heavy Rain Event?
Take a good, long look at your supernaturally-green lawn, because I suspect we'll have a couple inches of slush on the ground by midweek. We may still salvage a white Christmas, by the skin of our teeth.
Any other December the upcoming storm might drop 1 to 2 FEET of snow. Not this year. There's simply too much warm air around.
One symptom of a warming atmosphere: more water vapor floating overhead, capable of fueling (spiking) rain storms. One such heavy rain event is brewing tonight and Monday as a jolt of southern moisture combines with historic levels of water vapor. The local NWS (graphic above) estimates this may be a 1 in 30 year December rain event. Some 1-2 inch rainfall amounts give way to a burst of slush at the tail-end of the storm Monday, but this will be mainly rain.
A second, colder storm Wednesday could drop a couple inches of snow, followed by a few days in the 20s by late week. But NOAA's GFS guidance hints at 40F early next week and 30s on Christmas Day.
At the rate we're going this winter heavy snow and bitter cold may be the exception, not the rule.
Just saying.
Poor Ice Fishing on Pelican Lake. I snapped this up at our cabin on Pelican Lake (not far from Breezy Point) yesterday, a few ice cubs along the lakeshore, but open water as far as the eye can see. It looked more like mid-October than mid-December.
Twin Cities: Now Firmly in USDA Zone 5? My friend (and prize-winning rose gardener) Jack Falker takes a look at the trends and implications in his blog, The Minnesota Rose Gardener. In an e-mail he said: "We've been running 20 degrees above average but you also have to remember how much that average has been pulled warmer over the last 50-plus years, right along the trend line in my charts. So there is a compounding effect, with above average temps pulling the average ever higher..."
Here's an excerpt of Jack's blog post that caught my eye: "...For several years now I have been doing 50-plus year statistical analysis on Minneapolis-St. Paul winters and comparing them with winters in other upper-Midwest cities. The results are pretty amazing in that we can see very distinct warming trends developing. And it has become much easier to predict that these trends will continue and that we will see warmer winters going forward. The meteorological winter of 2015-16 began on December 1st and what we are now seeing is exactly what the trend line shows we should expect: temperatures are much warmer than average, an average which itself has been pulled significantly upward over the last 55 years. (Above) is my chart for the 55 winters beginning in 1961, through 2015, in the Twin Cities. What it shows is that since year 2000, all but three of our winters have been in USDA Zone 5 or higher, even though the USDA continues to rate MSP as Zone 4 (based on data that is now 10 years old). What's most important here is the upward slope of the trend-line, which, as mentioned above, is predictive. What the trend-line shows, if you extend it, is that MSP will be firmly in Zone 6 within the next three or four years. Right now, based on what we are seeing, I believe we will see a Zone 6 winter in 2016, for the second time in history, and there is a distinct possibility that it could be Zone 7, i.e. not below zero at all, which would be a first...."
* The graphic above shows the coldest nighttime low temperatures at Twin Cities International Airport since 1961.
Photo credit: Brian Gustafson.
30-Day Doppler Radar Precipitation Amounts: NOAA.
Coast Guard Closes all Maritime Entrances to Washington and Oregon. The concern? Flood-related debris and very high seas. Oregonlive.com has the details.
Western Cold Spell Resulting in Vegetable Shortage?
AerisWeather meteorologist D.J. Kayser takes a look at how (persistent)
chill in the west, including California's Central Valley, is making it
more expensive getting veggies on the dinner table, if you can even find
them. Here's an excerpt from a recent post: "There
is currently a shortage going on with a number of vegetables, including
some lettuce. According to the most recent report (December 10th) from Produce Alliance,
a produce management, procurement and consulting company, there are 14
crops that they have a “produce alert” on. Right now, the say that
“demand exceeds supply” on broccoli, with this
situation expected to continue for at least another week due to a
“slower growth rate.” Produce Alliance also says that cauliflower is in “Act of God” state, mentioning that there is “nonexistant supply” and that “growth rate is slow” with this crop as well..."
Searching for Eureka: IBM's Path Back to Greatness, and How It Could Change the World. Quartz has a fascinating story on Big Blue; here's the intro: "Things IBM invented or that wouldn’t exist without it:
Punch cards
The US Social Security System
The hard drive
SABRE global travel reservation system
Barcodes
The Apollo Program’s computers to land the first humans on the moon
The mainframe computer
The magnetic strip on credit cards
The personal computer
LASIK laser eye surgical tool
The floppy disk
Wifi
The US Social Security System
The hard drive
SABRE global travel reservation system
Barcodes
The Apollo Program’s computers to land the first humans on the moon
The mainframe computer
The magnetic strip on credit cards
The personal computer
LASIK laser eye surgical tool
The floppy disk
Wifi
IBM
has shed its skin so many times it’s hard to believe that this
104-year-old company started life making meat grinders and cheese
slicers. Since then, its core business has at different times been punch
card machines, clocks, mainframes, and personal computers, and it’s now
essentially a $93 billion-a-year enterprise software company, helping
equally monolithic firms manage their businesses slightly more
effectively than before..."
The Long Haul: One Year of Solitude on America's Highways. Esquire takes a look at the benefits and the dark side of long-haul trucking; here's an excerpt: "...There's
something metaphysical about driving alone through the night. As the
world slips into darkness, you enter a free-form self that is post-sleep
and incoherent. After a few hours, the parameters that separate you
from the prism of night dissolve, and only an elongated tube of light
sucks you along. And you begin to hallucinate. Under prolonged sensory
deprivation, your brain invents its own visions. Before we reached
Amarillo, I'd spent days on an acrobatic sleep schedule, trying to
weather my driving partner's erratic temper and fearing for my own
safety..."
Cheap Gas Is a Thrill, But a Costly One. The New York Times explains why; here's a clip: "The price of gasoline
just keeps dropping. A gallon of regular costs $2.01, on average,
across the United States, and the motor club AAA says it is likely to
plunge below $2 imminently. If you drive a car, as I do, gas that cheap
is a thrill. It is an inducement to head out on the road. Yet if you
worry about fuel emissions and climate change,
as I also do, the downward spiral of gas prices is frightening. It is
an incitement to burn fossil fuel when a great deal of evidence suggests
that we should be taking strenuous measures to burn much less of it, as
many nations of the world concluded at the conference on climate change in Paris this month..."
File photo: Glen Stubbe, Star Tribune.
Best News Bloopers of 2015. This was good for a string of laughs - rated PG, but very funny. Thanks to NewsBeFunny at YouTube for passing this along and brightening my day.
It's All About Me - Distracted Walkers Pose Threat to Self and Others. Darwin was right. Here's the intro to a story at The New York Times: "While
distracted driving has commanded lots of attention (albeit not a
commensurate amount of correction), another digital hazard — distracted
walking — is on the rise, with sometimes disastrous consequences. We’ve
all seen it, and often felt it, as people looking down to text, tweet,
read or play games on their smartphones crash into us, typically as we
walk in a straight line and they don’t. A study by Eric M. Lamberg and Lisa M. Muratori at Stony Brook University found that distracted walkers veer off course by as much as 61 percent while texting and walking..."
Image credit above: Paul Rogers.
SUNDAY: Rain and drizzle likely. Winds: NE 10-20. High: 43
SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain, heavy at times. Low: 37
MONDAY: Rain ends as a burst of snow; slush possible by midday. Winds: NW 20-35+ High: 37 (falling)
TUESDAY: Overcast and damp. Wake-up: 31. High: 38
WEDNESDAY: Couple inches of slushy snow possible. Wake-up: 33. High: 36
THURSDAY: Colder wind, few flurries. Wake-up: 25. High: 29
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like 5-10F. Wake-up: 16. High: 22
SATURDAY: Sunny, not as harsh. Wake-up: 11. High: 26
MONDAY: Rain ends as a burst of snow; slush possible by midday. Winds: NW 20-35+ High: 37 (falling)
TUESDAY: Overcast and damp. Wake-up: 31. High: 38
WEDNESDAY: Couple inches of slushy snow possible. Wake-up: 33. High: 36
THURSDAY: Colder wind, few flurries. Wake-up: 25. High: 29
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like 5-10F. Wake-up: 16. High: 22
SATURDAY: Sunny, not as harsh. Wake-up: 11. High: 26
Climate Stories...
The Paris outcome has two documents.
- The all-important, 12-page document “Paris Agreement”, which sets out new commitments for climate action beyond 2020, and potentially through this century.
- An accompanying, 19-page “Decision” which adds the legwork that countries will have to undertake before the Agreement enters into force in 2020.
* Digg.com has an overview of the summit agreement here.
Photo credit above: "French President Francois Hollande (L) takes his seat at a plenary session with Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius (C), President-designate of COP21, and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) at Le Bourget" Photo: Reuters/Stephane Mahe.
Paris Accord Considers Climate Change as a Factor in Mass Migration. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "...From
2008 to 2014, an average of 26.4 million people were displaced each
year by floods, storms, earthquakes and other natural disasters,
according to a report released in July by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center,
part of the Norwegian Refugee Council. Most moved within their
countries. “Climate-related displacement is not a future phenomenon,” said
Marine Franck, who works on climate change and migration for the United
Nations high commissioner for refugees. “It is a reality; it is already
a global concern...”
Photo credit above: "A
rough map of Europe on the wall of a sheltered area at the
under-construction Moria reception center on Lesbos island in Greece,
Nov. 19, 2015. Scientists have said that climate change can indirectly
set off migration by triggering violent conflicts, an idea that has been
an ominous, politically sensitive undercurrent at the two-week United
Nations climate conference outside Paris." (Sergey Ponomarev/The New York Times)
Failure to Address Global Warming Will Cost Many Lives. The Economist has the article; here's a clip: "CLIMATE change kills. In 2005 the World Health Organisation estimated that climate change caused by human activity claims more than 150,000 lives annually. More recently, the Climate Vulnerability Monitor placed the death toll at around 400,000. Using the Value of Statistical Life proposed by the US Environmental Protection Agency, this represents a cost of more than $3 trillion. Independent of the source, inaction on climate change is expected to increase death and suffering..." (Image: 123RF).
James Hanson, Father of Climate Change Awareness, Calls Paris Talks "A Fraud". The Guardian reports; here's an excerpt: "...Many of the conservatives know climate change is not a hoax. But those running for president are hamstrung by the fact they think they can’t get the nomination if they say this is an issue. They wouldn’t get money from the fossil fuel industry.” There is a positive note to end on, however. Global emissions have somewhat stalled and Hansen believes China, the world’s largest emitter, will now step up to provide the leadership lacking from the US. A submerged Fifth Avenue and deadly heatwaves aren’t an inevitability. “I think we will get there because China is rational,” Hansen says. “Their leaders are mostly trained in engineering and such things, they don’t deny climate change and they have a huge incentive, which is air pollution. It’s so bad in their cities they need to move to clean energies. They realise it’s not a hoax. But they will need co-operation.”
Climate Activists Gather in Paris to Protest Outcome of Conference. The New York Times reports; here's the introduction: "Several
thousand climate activists from across Europe and many from farther
afield gathered peacefully near the Arc de Triomphe on Saturday to
protest the outcome of the COP 21 climate conference about 12 miles away. The demonstration was an official exception to a ban on public gatherings across France after the Paris terrorist attacks in November. Even as the delegates at the official conference center were announcing a final draft of an agreement
and applauding their achievement, the crowds on the street made clear
their belief that it would take much more than the measures in that
draft to halt global climate change..."
Photo credit above: " Credit Thibault Camus/Associated Press
" Photo credit above: "Flooded roads are seen as waters along the river Shannon are expected to exceed severe flood levels, with up to 80mm of rain forecast to hit already devastated counties this weekend, in Banagher Co Offaly, Ireland, Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015." (Niall Carson/PA via AP).
What Climate Change Looks Like: Miami's $300 Million Pumps. Here's an excerpt of an excellent summary of New York Times articles focused on why a deal in Paris at COP21 is so critical: "...The impact of climate change is usually gauged by metrics like fractions of degrees of warming or millimeters of sea-level rise.
But the effects can also be measured in cash. Miami Beach is a case in
point. The city, built on a barrier island, is spending $300 million to
hold off the sea. Researchers at the University of Miami have been
carefully measuring sea levels
at Virginia Key, just south of Miami Beach, for nearly two decades, and
say that in that time the sea has risen nearly four inches. For Miami
Beach, that has exacerbated an existing problem – flooding of low-lying
streets in South Beach and other neighborhoods during extreme high tides..." (File photo: AP/Lynne Sladk).
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