December 12, 1939: A December gale along the North Shore leads to winds clocked at 48 mph at Duluth.
Persistence of Mild Signal
Weekend Rain, Slush up North?
We've seen 50s and even a few 60s in December in years gone by. What makes our current stretch of (irrational) warmth unusual is the sheer persistence of the mild signal: day after day, week after week, month after month.
Since September 1 over 80 percent of the days have been warmer than average, according to Mark Seeley. "Further, if you add in the first 10 days of December, the stretch of days from September 1, 2015 to December 10th is the warmest in state history, a remarkable run of warmth" he added. Details on the blog.
El Nino's firehose of moisture and subsequent flooding has been aimed at the Pacific Northwest, not California. Record warmth is reported out east; there should be enough warm air aloft for rain here on Sunday.
ECMWF (European) data suggests a second, heavier surge of precipitation on Monday - possibly warm enough for (mostly) rain. It'll be close. But NOAA's models hint at rain ending as slushy snow Monday.
Timing & amounts are very much up in the air but I could definitely see a couple inches of snow by midweek.
Overdue reality check: by late next week there will be NO doubt in your mind that it's December.
Photo credit: Brian Gustafson.
Soaker. The profile of the lower atmosphere will be (just) mild enough for mostly rain Sunday PM into Sunday night, but a changeover to snow is possible Monday before the storm winds down. Models print out nearly 2" of (liquid) precipitation for Eagan. Source: Aeris Enterprise.
30-Day Doppler Radar Precipitation Amounts: NOAA.
Coast Guard Closes all Maritime Entrances to Washington and Oregon. The concern? Flood-related debris and very high seas. Oregonlive.com has the details.
This Past Fall Was The Warmest on Record in the Continental U.S., Says NOAA. It was the second warmest on record for the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Here's an excerpt from The Capital Weather Gang: "The continental U.S. just ended its warmest autumn on record, September through November, during which “record and near-record warmth spanned much of the nation,” said NOAA in a press release. The average autumn temperature in the U.S. was 56.8 degrees, which is 3.3 degrees above the 20th century average, and the warmest such period in 121 years of record-keeping. The previous record for warmest fall was set in 1963, when the average temperature was 56.6 degrees..."
* Climate Central has more details on autumn's amazing, record-breaking warmth here.
Photo credit above: "A delivery man rides an electric bike past a steam emitted by a heating pipe underneath a street near a construction site shrouded by haze with air pollution in Beijing, China, Monday, Nov. 9, 2015. Northern China typically burns coal to heat homes in the winter, a practice believed to have fouled the air. Emissions from industrial plants and the increasing use of cars also are major causes of air pollution in China." (AP Photo/Andy Wong).
SUNDAY: A period rain is likely; heaviest south/east of MSP. Wet roads. Winds: N 10-20. High: near 40
MONDAY: Heavy rain may end as wet snow. Slushy accumulation? Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 38
TUESDAY: Gray, light slushy mix. Wake-up: 32. High: 37
WEDNESDAY: Light snow; couple inches? Wake-up: 30. High: 32
THURSDAY: So THIS is what winter feels like! Mostly cloudy and cold. Wake-up: 19. High: 26
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun; feels like 5F. Wake-up: 9. High: near 20
Photo credit above: "Flooded roads are seen as waters along the river Shannon are expected to exceed severe flood levels, with up to 80mm of rain forecast to hit already devastated counties this weekend, in Banagher Co Offaly, Ireland, Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015." (Niall Carson/PA via AP).
The Troubling Science That's Pushing the World Toward a Much Tougher Climate Goal. Chris Mooney explains at The Washington Post; here's a clip: "...The simple answer is that while the advocacy of small island nations on behalf of the 1.5 C goal has clearly been quite influential, in some ways just as persuasive has been, you know, science — particularly when it comes to the issue of sea level rise. “The combination of small island states and the sea level commitment stuff is the big ball and hammer that has been taken out now,” says Anders Levermann, a researcher with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research who spoke here at the conference about the latest research on sea level rise and the planet’s ice sheets. “It’s saying, this is a moral imperative, we cannot rid people of their countries...”
Photo credit above: "
Photo credit above: "Yellow paint is poured on the street during a protest by activists from environmental group Greenpeace on the Champs-Elysee in Paris, Friday, Dec. 11, 2015 . The protest is one of many activist actions linked to the COP21, the United Nations Climate Change Conference." (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Photo credit above: AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais.
Photo credit above: "People attend a climate conference at the U.S. pavilion during the COP21, United Nations Climate Change Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015. Widely derided by politicians on the left and the right, once thought dead even by its supporters, the idea of allowing companies to buy and sell pollution “rights” like stocks is now at the fore again as 151 heads of state and government at the Paris climate conference grope for ways to avert environmental havoc." (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Photo credit above: "NGO representatives gather next to on the mini red Eiffel Tower after a sit-in protest closed to the plenary session to denounce the first draft COP21 Climate Conference agreement, and put pressure to reach an international agreement to limit global warming, during the COP21, United Nations Climate Change Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, France, Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015." (AP Photo/Francois Mori).
Photo credit above: "Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi, minister of petroleum and mineral resources, of Saudi Arabia addressing delegates at COP21 conference in Le Bourget, Paris." Photograph: IISD.