39 F. high in the Twin Cities Friday.
28 F. average high on December 11.
32 F. high temperature at MSP on December 11, 2014.
December 12, 2004:
A strong cold front pushes through Minnesota during the early morning
hours. By dawn, winds turn to the northwest and increase to 25 to 40 MPH
with gusts as high as 70 MPH. The windiest part of the day was from mid
morning through mid afternoon when many locations suffered sustained
winds in the 30 to 45 MPH range. The highest wind gusts recorded in
southern Minnesota during this time included 71 MPH in Welch and 62 MPH
near Albert Lea, St. James, Winthrop and Owatonna. Other notable wind
gusts included 59 MPH at New Ulm, 58 MPH in Mankato, 55 MPH in St. Cloud
and Morris, 54 MPH at Redwood Falls, and 52 MPH at the Minneapolis/St.
Paul International Airport. Scattered trees were downed and a few
buildings received minor roof damage across the region.
December 12, 1939: A December gale along the North Shore leads to winds clocked at 48 mph at Duluth.
Persistence of Mild SignalWeekend Rain, Slush up North?
We've
seen 50s and even a few 60s in December in years gone by. What makes
our current stretch of (irrational) warmth unusual is the sheer
persistence of the mild signal: day after day, week after week, month
after month.
Since
September 1
over 80 percent of the days have been warmer than average, according to
Mark Seeley. "Further, if you add in the first 10 days of December, the
stretch of days from September 1, 2015 to December 10th is the warmest
in state history, a remarkable run of warmth" he added. Details on the
blog.
El Nino's firehose of moisture and subsequent flooding has
been aimed at the Pacific Northwest, not California. Record warmth is
reported out east; there should be enough warm air aloft for rain here
on Sunday.
ECMWF (European) data suggests a second, heavier surge of precipitation on
Monday - possibly warm enough for (mostly) rain. It'll be close. But NOAA's models hint at rain ending as slushy snow
Monday.
Timing & amounts are very much up in the air but I could definitely see a couple inches of snow by midweek.
Overdue reality check: by late next week there will be NO doubt in your mind that it's December.
Persistence of Abnormally Warm Temperatures. Dr. Mark Seeley puts the recent warmth into perspective in this week's edition of
Minnesota WeatherTalk; here's an excerpt: "...
For
the first 8 months of the year (January-August) Minnesota was mostly
recording a relatively even mixture of warmer and colder than normal
daily temperatures. However starting in September and continuing into
the first 10 days of December over 80 percent of all days have produced
warmer than normal temperatures. The 3-month period of September
through November was the 2nd warmest in Minnesota history on a statewide
basis, trailing only 1963 by 0.2°F. Further if you add in the first 10
days of December, the stretch of days from September 1, 2015 to
December 10th is the warmest in state history, a remarkable run of
warmth..."
Photo credit: Brian Gustafson.
This is the Globe's Hottest Five-Year Period on Record.
WXshift has a few eye-opening statistics, although they have not been
fact-checked by Donald Trump, so proceed with caution. Here's an
excerpt: "..
.The finding that it’s been the hottest five-year period
on record on land and at sea underscores the need to reduce carbon
emissions in an effort to avoid further dramatic changes. The WMO warned
that continuing on a business as usual path of rising emissions could
put the world on track for 10.8°F (6°C) increase in the global average
temperature. There are also concerns that oceans, which currently absorb more than 90 percent
of the extra heat being trapped by human greenhouse gas emissions,
could eventually release some of that back to the surface, speeding up
the surface temperature rise..."
Mid-December Rain Event.
Yes, it's unusual, but not unprecedented. NOAA models predict some 1-2"
rainfall amounts for the Twin Cities metro Sunday into Monday, mixing
with wet snow by Monday over parts of western and northern Minnesota,
where a few slushy inches may accumulate.
Wasted Moisture.
That's the perspective for snow-lovers. I'd be happy with heavy snow
and 20s and 30s, but it never quite works out that way. NOAA's 00z NAM
model guidance prints out 2.22" liquid, with a changeover to snow Monday
morning. By the time it's cold enough for snow aloft and at the surface
the heaviest precipitation will have cut off, but I could still see a
few inches of slush Monday. And had it been 5F colder we'd be looking at
18-24" of snow for the metro. So close...
Plume of Moisture.
Southern moisture surges north Sunday and Sunday night; the atmospheric
profile warmer than freezing in the lowest mile of the atmosphere,
meaning (mostly) rain. A second surge Monday could become mixed with wet
snow, especially north and west of MSP. Source: NOAA NAM, AerisWeather.
Rainfall Forecast by Midnight Sunday.
Some 1" rainfall amounts are possible, especially southern and eastern
suburbs of the Twin Cities. Excessive 2-3" amounts can't be ruled out
for far southeastern Minnesota, Iowa and central Wisconsin. A little
mid-December flash flooding? I know - bizarre.
Soaker.
The profile of the lower atmosphere will be (just) mild enough for
mostly rain Sunday PM into Sunday night, but a changeover to snow is
possible Monday before the storm winds down. Models print out nearly 2"
of (liquid) precipitation for Eagan. Source: Aeris Enterprise.
Breaking News: December is Coming.
Our extended October finally comes to an end next week; model guidance
showing single-digit windchills by next Thursday and Friday.
Stocking Full of Slush on Christmas Eve?
I don't see how we don't pick up at least a couple inches of snow next
week as colder air approaches; one chance Monday, another window for
snow by Wednesday. But GFS guidance warms MSP back up to 40F by
Christmas Eve as Pacific air returns.
10-Day Snowfall Prediction.
We may still salvage a white Christmas, but don't expect heaps and
piles of white in your yard on December 25. GFS guidance hints at an
inch or two by the middle of next week, the best chance of plowable
amounts over far northern Minnesota, including Duluth and the Iron
Range. Source: AerisWeather.
Powerful Alaska Storm to Rival Strongest on Record.
El Nino warmth pushing into the northern Pacific is setting up an
extreme "baroclinic zone", a belt of severe temperature extremes capable
of spinning up a record storm. Here's an excerpt from
MSN: "
A
potent storm that will cross the Aleutian Islands of Alaska this
weekend could become the strongest recorded storm to impact the region.
This storm comes a little over a year after ex-Super Typhoon Nuri became
the most powerful system on record to cross Dutch Harbor, Alaska, which
is located in the Aleutian Islands, with a central low pressure of 924
millibars (27.29 inches of Hg)..." (Map credit: WeatherBell).
Northwest Storms Ease Drought Worries; Mudslide Risks Remain.
The San Francisco Chronicle has an update on the firehose of (El Nino-enhanced) moisture trained on the Pacific Northwest; here's an excerpt: "...
The
moisture is helping to fill reservoirs earlier and recharging the
groundwater, said Scott Pattee, water supply specialist with the Natural
Resources Conservation Service based in Mount Vernon. But "a lot of
this rain is going down hard so it's flowing straight through the
snowpack, and it's not adding to it," he added. Much of Washington's
water supply depends on mountain snowpack that builds over winter, and
melts in spring and summer. The latest report from the U.S. Drought
Monitor on Thursday showed the area west of the Cascade Mountains in
Washington is no longer in drought..."
30-Day Doppler Radar Precipitation Amounts:
NOAA.
Coast Guard Closes all Maritime Entrances to Washington and Oregon. The concern? Flood-related debris and very high seas. Oregonlive.com has the
details.
Western Cold Spell Resulting in Vegetable Shortage?
AerisWeather meteorologist D.J. Kayser takes a look at how (persistent)
chill in the west, including California's Central Valley, is making it
more expensive getting veggies on the dinner table, if you can even find
them. Here's an excerpt from a
recent post: "
There
is currently a shortage going on with a number of vegetables, including
some lettuce. According to the most recent report (December 10th) from Produce Alliance,
a produce management, procurement and consulting company, there are 14
crops that they have a “produce alert” on. Right now, the say that
“demand exceeds supply” on broccoli, with this
situation expected to continue for at least another week due to a
“slower growth rate.” Produce Alliance also says that cauliflower is in “Act of God” state, mentioning that there is “nonexistant supply” and that “growth rate is slow” with this crop as well..."
This Past Fall Was The Warmest on Record in the Continental U.S., Says NOAA. It was the second warmest on record for the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Here's an excerpt from
The Capital Weather Gang: "
The
continental U.S. just ended its warmest autumn on record, September
through November, during which “record and near-record warmth spanned
much of the nation,” said NOAA in a press release. The average autumn temperature in the U.S.
was 56.8 degrees, which is 3.3 degrees above the 20th century average,
and the warmest such period in 121 years of record-keeping. The previous
record for warmest fall was set in 1963, when the average temperature
was 56.6 degrees..."
*
Climate Central has more details on autumn's amazing, record-breaking warmth
here.
"Monster" El Nino Could Usher In Decade of More and Stronger Events. A sign of things to come? Here's a snippet from a story at
Reuters that caught my eye: "...
While
El Nino oscillates on a more or less yearly cycle, another dynamic in
Pacific Ocean water temperatures, known as the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), has the potential to accelerate global warming and
increase the severity of El Nino episodes, scientists said. The last
time the PDO was, as it may be now, in a prolonged positive, or "warm"
phase, it corresponded with two of the strongest El Ninos on record.
"When you really have a monster El Nino, it could be enough to flip the
PDO into a new phase for a decade or so," said William Patzert, a
climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. "Keep
your eyeballs peeled because maybe we're in for a decadal shift..." (Image credit: NOAA).
For Indians, Smog and Poverty are Higher Priorities than Talks in Paris.
The New York Times has the analysis - here's a link and story excerpt: "...
But
few countries have so much at stake as India. For the last month, the
front pages of major newspapers have been dominated by one environmental
crisis after another: City-dwellers are up in arms about hazardous levels of air pollution, which has already damaged the lungs of about half of Delhi’s schoolchildren.
And last month brought torrential rains and flooding in the southern
city of Chennai, evoking the erratic weather that climate experts warn
about. “People are experiencing far more, and the impacts are far more
severe,” said Arivudai Nambi Appadurai, a climate risk specialist for
the World Resources Institute, whose family weathered the flood in Chennai.
“It is right there in front of them. You experience it, you believe it.
It’s not something happening far away that you read about in the
newspaper...”
Photo credit above: "
In this Dec 1,
2015 photo, smoke billows out of a chimney of a small scale factory in
New Delhi, India. Over the last decade the city's air pollution has
grown so rapidly that the cold weather turns the city into a grey,
smog-filled health nightmare. New Delhi has earned the dubious
distinction of being the world's dirtiest city, surpassing Beijing, once
the poster child for air pollution." (AP Photo /Tsering Topgyal).
China's Polluted Skies Take on a Darker Meaning For Its Leaders. Here's a clip from
The New York Times: "...
On
no other issue are President Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders
forced to walk such a fine line, between controlling information that
has the potential to undermine their legitimacy and doling it out to increasingly anxious citizens
who consider such disclosures essential. And as awareness of their
toxic environment grows, people are demanding fundamental solutions, not
only periods of red alert that result in inconveniences..."
Photo credit above: "
A woman wears a mask for protection against the pollution in Beijing, China, Wednesday,
Dec. 9, 2015. Unhealthy smog hovered over downtown Beijing as limits on
cars, factories and construction sites kept pollution from spiking even
higher Wednesday, on the second of three days of restrictions triggered
by the city's first red alert for smog." (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan).
To See The Future of Electric Cars, Look East.
China realizes it has a staggering problem with pollution, and both the
government and consumers are starting to respond. Here's an excerpt
from
Bloomberg View: "...
But
as glitzy as these bets are, the real action is happening in China,
where smoggy skies and government subsidies are creating the perfect
conditions for electric vehicles to thrive. The proof is in the numbers.
According to data
released this week by the China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers, sales of electric cars are poised to exceed those in the
U.S. for the first time ever. Already, they’ve grown 290 percent
year-on-year to 171,145 vehicles. They're expected to reach 220,000 to
250,000 for the year, whereas the U.S. market is predicted to top out at
around 180,000 cars..."
Photo credit above: "
A
delivery man rides an electric bike past a steam emitted by a heating
pipe underneath a street near a construction site shrouded by haze with
air pollution in Beijing, China, Monday, Nov. 9, 2015. Northern China
typically burns coal to heat homes in the winter, a practice believed to
have fouled the air. Emissions from industrial plants and the
increasing use of cars also are major causes of air pollution in China." (AP Photo/Andy Wong).
Cheap Gas Is a Thrill, But a Costly One.
The New York Times explains why; here's a clip: "
The price of gasoline
just keeps dropping. A gallon of regular costs $2.01, on average,
across the United States, and the motor club AAA says it is likely to
plunge below $2 imminently. If you drive a car, as I do, gas that cheap
is a thrill. It is an inducement to head out on the road. Yet if you
worry about fuel emissions and climate change,
as I also do, the downward spiral of gas prices is frightening. It is
an incitement to burn fossil fuel when a great deal of evidence suggests
that we should be taking strenuous measures to burn much less of it, as
many nations of the world concluded at the conference on climate change in Paris this month..."
File photo: Glen Stubbe, Star Tribune.
Best News Bloopers of 2015. This was good for a string of laughs - rated PG, but very funny. Thanks to
NewsBeFunny at YouTube for passing this along and brightening my day.
TODAY: Clouds and drizzle. Winds: NE 7-12. High: 41
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds, fog and drizzle - a little light rain at times. Low: 39
SUNDAY: A period rain is likely; heaviest south/east of MSP. Wet roads. Winds: N 10-20. High: near 40
MONDAY: Heavy rain may end as wet snow. Slushy accumulation? Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 38
TUESDAY: Gray, light slushy mix. Wake-up: 32. High: 37
WEDNESDAY: Light snow; couple inches? Wake-up: 30. High: 32
THURSDAY: So THIS is what winter feels like! Mostly cloudy and cold. Wake-up: 19. High: 26
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun; feels like 5F. Wake-up: 9. High: near 20
Climate Stories...
Agreement in Paris? Here is the draft text (PDF) from the COP21 Climate Summit in Paris. Source:
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Extreme UK Rains More Likely With Warming. The Cumbria area of the UK has seen torrential rains and extensive flooding in recent days; here's an excerpt of an update at
Climate Central: "
Over
this past weekend, a major storm swept across the U.K. and dumped
torrential amounts of rain in some spots — the more than 13 inches that
fell in one location in northwest England even set a national 24-hour
rainfall record. Just days later, a real-time analysis by scientists
working with Climate Central’s World Weather Attribution
program has found that global warming has boosted the odds of such an
extreme rainfall event in the region by about 40 percent — a small, but
clear, effect, the scientists say. The finding is particularly
noteworthy because the results of studies looking at the potential role
of climate change in extreme precipitation have been a mixed bag,
especially compared to heat waves, which have a much simpler and clearer
connection to warming..."
Photo credit above: "
Flooded
roads are seen as waters along the river Shannon are expected to exceed
severe flood levels, with up to 80mm of rain forecast to hit already
devastated counties this weekend, in Banagher Co Offaly, Ireland,
Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015." (Niall Carson/PA via AP).
What Climate Change Looks Like: Miami's $300 Million Pumps. Here's an excerpt of an excellent summary of
New York Times articles focused on why a deal in Paris at COP21 is so critical: "...
The impact of climate change is usually gauged by metrics like fractions of degrees of warming or millimeters of sea-level rise.
But the effects can also be measured in cash. Miami Beach is a case in
point. The city, built on a barrier island, is spending $300 million to
hold off the sea. Researchers at the University of Miami have been
carefully measuring sea levels
at Virginia Key, just south of Miami Beach, for nearly two decades, and
say that in that time the sea has risen nearly four inches. For Miami
Beach, that has exacerbated an existing problem – flooding of low-lying
streets in South Beach and other neighborhoods during extreme high tides..." (File photo: AP/Lynne Sladk).
Climate Negotiators, Listen Up: A Warmer World is a More Violent World. An article at
The Washington Post got my attention; here's an excerpt: "...
Here’s one more effect to worry about. In a forthcoming article
in Climatic Change, we investigate whether rising temperatures are
connected to rising rates of violence. In short: yes. Our research found
that each degree increase in Celsius (or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) is
linked to a nearly six percent average increase in homicide rates around
the globe. Those rates vary by region. In Africa, each degree increase
in global temperature is associated with an almost 18 percent average
increase in homicides. In North America, Australia and New Zealand, by
contrast, the increase is approximately 3 percent on average. While our
study is not the first to examine this link, it is the most
comprehensive –and the first to examine it at a global level..."
Watch Elon Musk and Exxon Finally Agree on Something. Here's a snippet from an article at
Bloomberg Business: "...
In Paris, U.S. President Barack Obama and Elon Musk both spoke in support of a carbon tax. So did Exxon Mobil, joining a half-dozen other energy giants who came out in favor of one in June. A well-designed carbon tax can cut greenhouse-gas pollution in
the most economically efficient way by letting market forces do the
work. There are plenty of reasons to enact one. Carbon pricing is
spreading. In 2015, some 40 countries and more than 20 subnational
governments had a price on emissions, either through a carbon tax or a
cap-and-trade system. They account for almost a quarter of global
greenhouse-gas emissions..."
The Troubling Science That's Pushing the World Toward a Much Tougher Climate Goal. Chris Mooney explains at
The Washington Post; here's a clip: "...
The
simple answer is that while the advocacy of small island nations on
behalf of the 1.5 C goal has clearly been quite influential, in some
ways just as persuasive has been, you know, science — particularly when
it comes to the issue of sea level rise. “The combination of small
island states and the sea level commitment stuff is
the big ball and hammer that has been taken out now,” says Anders
Levermann, a researcher with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research who spoke here at the conference about the latest research on
sea level rise and the planet’s ice sheets. “It’s saying, this is a
moral imperative, we cannot rid people of their countries...”
Photo credit above: "
This undated photo courtesy of NASA shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica." (AFP PHOTO / NASA / HANDOUT).
Explained in 90 Seconds: Why 1.5 Degrees Matters. Mother Jones explains with text and an effective video; here's an excerpt: "...B
ut
here's where things get problematic. There's a huge difference between
including the 1.5 degrees C limit in the agreement, and ensuring that it
could actually be met. That's because other key pieces of the agreement
that could actually make that level of ambition possible are still far
from clear. The biggest obstacle could be the hotly debated "ratchet
mechanism," which would require countries to boost their targets for
greenhouse gas reductions over time, and which the US delegation appears
to be resisting. The current draft of the text includes language
directing countries to provide an update of their progress every five
years or so, which would be compiled into a global "stock-take," a kind
of collated update, sometime after 2020. But the enforcement stops
there; there's nothing in the agreement to penalize countries that lag
behind or to compel them to boost their ambitions..."
Hurdles Remain as Clock Ticks at Paris Climate Talks. It's down to the wire and work on a draft agreement may spill into the weekend; here's an excerpt from
TIME: "...
A
new draft of the agreement released Thursday evening shows new
consensus on a long-term cap on temperature rise and a system for
countries to revise and improve efforts to reduce their greenhouse gas
emissions. Other key issues
remain unsettled with the conference expected to continue past its
scheduled Friday evening end time, but conference leaders said they will
deliver a new text at 9 am on Saturday. Observers expect formal
agreement in the following hours the new text. “The real negotiations
have finally begun,” said Jennifer Morgan, global director of the
climate program at World Resources Institute. “There are very clear
signs of progress, but key provisions are still in play...”
Photo credit above: "
Yellow
paint is poured on the street during a protest by activists from
environmental group Greenpeace on the Champs-Elysee in Paris, Friday,
Dec. 11, 2015 . The protest is one of many activist actions linked to
the COP21, the United Nations Climate Change Conference." (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Ted Cruz Plays the Victim Card as a Climate "Heretic". NationalJournal takes a look at this week's testimony in front of a Senate subcommittee; here's an excerpt: "...
At
a hearing of the Senate Commerce Committee’s subcommittee on
Space, Science, and Competitiveness, the Texas Republican
repeatedly railed against climate change “alarmists” who he said are
embracing an unproven science. Comparing himself to a
persecuted “heretic” like Galileo, Cruz charged that he was fighting
against a “dogma” that had squelched scientific debate. “I believe
that public policy should follow the actual science and the
actual data and evidence, and not political and partisan claims
that run contrary to the science and data and analysis,” Cruz said.
Democrats, however, said Cruz was simply standing in the way of
action on climate change..."
Photo credit above: AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais.
Climate Negotiators Zero In on Key Issues as Planned End to Paris Talks Near. The Wall Street Journal has an update; here's the intro: "
The
U.S. closed ranks with some 100 countries—including members of the
European Union, Mexico and Colombia—in calling for a strong deal to
tackle climate change, with just days of negotiations left at a summit
here. A new draft of the agreement released Wednesday afternoon—after
almost 10 days of talks among 195 nations—showed that some fundamental
points remain up in the air. Governments still haven’t decided by how
much temperatures should be allowed to increase, how much money would be
provided to poor governments to adapt to the effects of climate change
and switch away from fossil fuels, and whether emerging economies will
take on more responsibilities..."
Photo credit above: "
People
attend a climate conference at the U.S. pavilion during the COP21,
United Nations Climate Change Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris,
Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015. Widely derided by politicians on the left and
the right, once thought dead even by its supporters, the idea of
allowing companies to buy and sell pollution “rights” like stocks is now
at the fore again as 151 heads of state and government at the Paris
climate conference grope for ways to avert environmental havoc." (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
5 Climate Summit Takeaways as Deadline Nears.
POLITICO has a few bullet points on what we can expect in terms of a final deal; here's an excerpt: "...
A Paris deal appears visible on the horizon… but there’s still a lot of work to do. The problem is that the latest draft
lays out the deepest fault lines in the negotiations, and they tend to
be over issues that cut across the entire package. But on the positive
side, a lot of the smaller issues have been dealt with. Until now, some
of the biggest players — India and China but also the European Union and
others on the developed side — have largely kept their cards close to
their chests. In the final hours, they are gradually starting to take
steps towards what people here like to call “the landing zone,” or the
conditions for an agreement that doesn’t end in a nasty crash..."
Photo credit above: "
NGO
representatives gather next to on the mini red Eiffel Tower after a
sit-in protest closed to the plenary session to denounce the first draft
COP21 Climate Conference agreement, and put pressure to reach an
international agreement to limit global warming, during the COP21,
United Nations Climate Change Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris,
France, Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015." (AP Photo/Francois Mori).
Saudi Arabia Accused of Trying to Wreck Paris Climate Deal. Here's the intro to a story at
The Guardian: "
Saudi Arabia stood accused on Tuesday of trying to wreck the Paris climate summit
in order to protect its future as one of the world’s largest oil
producers. As the talks entered the home stretch, developing country
negotiators and campaigners became increasingly vocal in their
complaints that the kingdom was getting in the way of a deal. “They are
seeing the writing on the wall,” said Wael Hmaidan , director of Climate
Action Network, the global campaign group. “The world is changing and
it’s making them very nervous...”
Photo credit above: "
Ali
bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi, minister of petroleum and mineral resources, of
Saudi Arabia addressing delegates at COP21 conference in Le Bourget,
Paris." Photograph: IISD.
At the Climate Conference, The Rich are Working to Stay Rich.
New Republic provides more perspective; here's an excerpt: "...
Remember:
Climate change, by definition, is going to affect every single system
on Earth. One of those systems is commerce and trade. Another is
politics. When a massive disruption happens to money and power in the
hands of people we currently think of as winners, some of them might
start to lose. And some people we currently think as losers might start
to win. This climate conference is the winners spending hundreds of
millions of dollars to make sure they keep winning, in part by making
sure that things don’t change so dangerously and fast that everybody
loses. That is why Google, 3M, Philips, Air France-KLM, two French
Energy companies, and dozens of other corporate sponsors are helping cover the conference’s $185 million bill..."
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