74 F. average high on June 2.
76 F. high on June 2, 2015.
June 3, 1955: Seven people are killed on Lake Traverse when their boat is overturned by strong winds from a thunderstorm.
A Rarity So Far in 2016: Severe Risk Later Today
Do you feel like you're being spammed by severe storm messages? Most meteorologists would much rather hear "you're crying wolf!" than "there was no warning!"
We've come a long way since the first emergency sirens started wailing for severe weather back in the 50s. Nationwide the average lead time for tornado warnings is 13 minutes, up from 5 minutes in the 70s. Doppler radar has revolutionized the tracking and forecasting of severe local storms since the mid-90s. Fewer people than ever are being unnecessarily warned. At some point GPS-specific warnings will alert just the homes in the path of tornadoes and damaging wind and hailstorms (via smartphones and Smart TVs).
Although wind shear is marginal & low-level moisture minimal there may be just enough instability for a few severe storms later today. The primary risk is hail; a 15 percent chance of severe storms within 25 miles of any point.
Sunday looks like the nicer day of the weekend; a stray PM shower near Duluth and Spooner.
ECMWF guidance still hints at 90F next Thursday as summer returns with a vengeance.
Map credit: "Last 30 days of rain, ending June 1." Credit: NOAA.
No Major U.S. Hurricane Landfalls in 9 Years: Luck? At some point the law of averages catches up with you, although I pretty sure I said something similar last year. And 2014. And 2013. Here's an excerpt from NASA: "The United States hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 or larger hurricane in nine years – a string of years that’s likely to come along only once every 177 years, according to a new NASA study. The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York..."
Hurricane Ivan file image: NASA ISS.
What To Do If You're Driving And Encounter a Flash Flood. Rule #1 - don't drive through high water - it's impossible to estimate water depth, especially at night. Only 2 feet of moving water can turn your vehicle into a boat, with tragic consequences. NOAA has it right: "Turn around, don't drown." Here's an excerpt from Popular Mechanics: "...Getting swept away while inside your vehicle is extremely dangerous. Although it sounds counterintuitive, if you're stuck inside your car, you'll want to roll down your windows and allow water to enter your vehicle. You can escape from your vehicle through the window or, if that's not possible, wait until the water pressure is equal on both sides of your door so it will open..."
Photo credit: " Travis Heying MCT.
Surging Seas Risk Zone Map above courtesy of Climate Central.
2016 Is A Breakthrough Year for Solar. TheHill has some encouraging statistics and projections: "Over the past few months, we've seen a rush of exciting developments in solar, some giving us insight into how distributed energy may work in the future. Thanks to tax credits (ITC) being renewed, 2016 will be a breakthrough year for U.S. solar, rising a stunning 119 percent. Sixteen gigawatts (GW) are expected to be installed, shattering last year's record 7.3 GW, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and GTM Research. In February, we passed a wonderful milestone as the millionth home was outfitted with a solar system. About 300,000 Americans will install solar this year..." (Photo: Utility Dive).
Critics: Minnesota Utility's Solar Plan Pushes Out Competitors. Midwest Energy News has the story; here's a clip: "...I think people are really excited about the opportunity to have more solar energy across Minnesota and in northern Minnesota,” she said. “There was a belief that community solar would add to the region’s economy.” However, if the program is owned solely by Minnesota Power, community solar may not have as great a potential as it would have in a more open process allowing other community solar developers into the mix, she argued. The group, calling itself the Northland Community Solar Coalition, includes churches, environmental organizations, clean energy groups and climate change activists such as Will Steger..."
TODAY: Unsettled, few strong to severe T-storms. Winds: S 10-20. High: near 80
FRIDAY NIGHT: Few T-storms, locally heavy rain. Low: 60
SATURDAY: Periods of cool sunshine, stray PM shower. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 72
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, PM showers up north. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 55. High: 76
MONDAY: Fading sun, few PM showers. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 73
TUESDAY: Brilliant sunshine, less wind. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 54. High: 72
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and warmer. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 79
THURSDAY: Hot, steamy sun, few T-storms. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 63. High: near 90
Photo credit: "From left, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., holding a press conference at the Miles Smith Farm in Loudon, N.H., on Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2014." Credit: Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call.
Graphic credit: "Sea ice extent through the end of May, with the blue line showing 2016." Image: NSIDC
The "Temperature Spiral" Has an Update. It's Not Pretty. This is one of the better visualizations I've ever seen about the warming underway - here's an update from Climate Central: "...Like a lot of people, I found Ed Hawkins' temperature animation very compelling because it details observed warming from 1850 to present in a novel way,” U.S. Geological Survey scientist Jay Alder said. “His graphic sets the context for looking at projections from climate models.” So Alder used climate projections and stretched the spiral to its logical conclusion in 2100 when most climate model projections end. Using our current carbon emissions trends, it shows that things could get out of hand pretty quickly..."
Animation credit: "An update to the famous temperature spiral using future climate projections." Credit: Jay Alder/USGS.
Houston Flooding is a Perfect Storm of Climate Change and Bad Urban Planning. Suddenly the "no zoning!" provisions seem like more of a bug than a feature, according to Grist: "...One likely cause,” Texas’ state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon tells Grist, “is the increase in ocean temperatures from the Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic. That determines how much moisture is in the atmosphere.” As temperatures increase, so does rainfall. But it’s not just the rainfall that is endangering Houston’s citizens — it’s also ecologically irresponsible development. Houston is the only major American city without formal zoning laws. As a result, developers have been free to pave over huge swaths of valuable wetlands that absorb runoff..."
Photo credit: U.S. Army National Guard/1st Lt. Zachary West/Handout via Reuters.
Photo credit: "A Bambi Bucket hanging from a helicopter releases hundreds of gallons of water on to the Stetson Creek Fire near Cooper Landing, Alaska, last year." Photograph: Sgt Balinda O'Neal/AP.