67 F. high yesterday in the Twin Cities.
74 F. average high on June 1.
June 2, 1945: Snow and sleet pile up to 4.5 inches at Tower.
June 2, 1898: Heavy rain falls across Minnesota. Just over 7 inches is reported at Pine River Dam.
Severe Risk Friday - A "Plan B" Weekend Coming
I would like to publicly apologize for the weekend forecast. I have NOTHING to do with the weather - but I WILL be blamed when the sky turns foul and runny on Saturday. It's inevitable.
Which begs the question: are you 'weather-sensitive'? New research suggests that 15-20 percent of us are genetically hypersensitive to our surroundings. Are you easily overwhelmed by bright lights and noise? Do you startle easily? Extra-sensitive to caffeine? If so a dreary weekend may affect your moods more than most.
I wish I could prescribe an antibiotic of warm weekend sunshine, but another surge of cool air keeps us showery much of Saturday and Sunday with a stiff wind. Temperatures may not climb out of the 60s Saturday afternoon. The approach of this (rude, ill-timed) cool front may spark the first widespread severe T-storm outbreak of 2016 on Friday. The biggest risk is large hail and straight-line winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
That said, today will be stunning and summer heat returns next week; 90F by next Thursday. Wild weather swings?
Welcome to Minnesota!
Weather and Mood: Rainy With a Chance of Depression. Are you "weather-sensitive"? It would appear that there's considerable data to suggest that some of us are more prone to ups and downs triggered by changes in the weather. Here's an excerpt from the information referenced in today's column at Everyday Health: "...Weather is going to affect you more if you are a highly-sensitive person, as defined by Elaine Aron, PhD, in her best-seller, The Highly Sensitive Person. If you answer yes to these and most of the questions on Aron’s website, you’re probably in the club, which holds 15 to 20 percent of human beings. Are you easily overwhelmed by bright lights and noise? Do you startle easily? Do other people’s moods influence you? Does caffeine have a great effect on you? Research has indicated that hypersensitive people are genetically different from folks who have a normal degree of sensitivity. This might explain why the rain or cold or heat affects some of us much more than others, and why some people would thrive in a humid, hot climate, while others would wilt. Your response to weather would depend on your sensitivity type..."
Photo credit: "A house is flooded by water from the rain-swollen Brazos River in Richmond, Texas." Reuters/Daniel Kramer.
Derived Precipitation from April 2 to June 1: NOAA and WeatherBell.
What To Do If You're Driving And Encounter a Flash Flood. Rule #1 - don't drive through high water - it's impossible to estimate water depth, especially at night. Only 2 feet of moving water can turn your vehicle into a boat, with tragic consequences. NOAA has it right: "Turn around, don't drown." Here's an excerpt from Popular Mechanics: "...Getting swept away while inside your vehicle is extremely dangerous. Although it sounds counterintuitive, if you're stuck inside your car, you'll want to roll down your windows and allow water to enter your vehicle. You can escape from your vehicle through the window or, if that's not possible, wait until the water pressure is equal on both sides of your door so it will open..."
Image credit: "The probability of severe weather forming on a given day in the U.S." Credit: Climate Central.
If You Build It They Will Come - Hurricanes, That Is. Meteorologist John Morales from Miami has a timely post at WXshift; here's the intro: "In the classic baseball movie "Field of Dreams," a baseball diamond was built in a cornfield. In what could be a disaster movie-in-production, Florida has built enough housing and infrastructure in the past decade to accommodate 2.5 million new residents. It’s clear that a lot of building has been going on in the Sunshine State lately. But not one has come! Not a single hurricane has reached Florida since major Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. When this year’s Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, it’ll mark a record 10 years, seven months and eight days since the last landfall..."
Image credit: "Satellite image of Hurricane Wilma over Florida." Credit: NOAA.
Photo credit: " Travis Heying MCT.
Republicans and Democrats Agree On At Least One Thing: Wildfires Are a Major Threat. Here's the intro to a story at Grist: "A bipartisan group of U.S. senators is teaming up to do away with preordained spending caps on emergency fire recovery efforts as the American West braces for another wildfire season. Drier conditions, likely driven by climate change, have turned vast swaths of the continent into veritable tinderboxes; last summer, for example, five million acres of Alaska and 1.7 million acres across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho burned. “We need to call mega-fires what they are — disasters,” said Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), in a press release..." (Image credit: REUTERS/Noah Berger).
Surging Seas Risk Zone Map above courtesy of Climate Central.
2015: A Record Year for Renewables. Reuters has the facts and figures: "A record amount of renewable power capacity was installed worldwide last year as solar and wind costs fell, becoming more competitive with fossil fuels, research by renewables policy organisation REN21 showed on Tuesday. New installations of renewable power generation capacity (including hydropower) rose to 1,848.5 gigawatts (GW) globally in 2015, an increase of 147.2 GW from the previous year, Paris-based REN21's annual renewables global status report showed. This is the largest ever annual increase in installed capacity and was mainly driven by renewables becoming more cost-competitive with oil, coal and gas in many markets and an increase in government policies to support the growth of clean energy, it added..." (File photo: MN.gov).
Photo credit: "The Licorice Shrine." Anncarolrandall (Atlas Obscura User).
TODAY: Sunny and beautiful. Winds: W 7-12. High: 73
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and dry. Low: 59
FRIDAY: T-storms arrive, a few may be severe. Winds: S 8-13. High: 74
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, cool wind, lingering showers. Sorry. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 57. High: 67
SUNDAY: A bit better. AM sun, late-day shower. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 54. High: 73
MONDAY: Partly sunny, late-day shower risk. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 75
TUESDAY: Sunny and stunning. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 58. High: 78
WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sun, warming up again. Wake-up: 59. High: 83
The "Temperature Spiral" Has an Update. It's Not Pretty. This is one of the better visualizations I've ever seen about the warming underway - here's an update from Climate Central: "...Like a lot of people, I found Ed Hawkins' temperature animation very compelling because it details observed warming from 1850 to present in a novel way,” U.S. Geological Survey scientist Jay Alder said. “His graphic sets the context for looking at projections from climate models.” So Alder used climate projections and stretched the spiral to its logical conclusion in 2100 when most climate model projections end. Using our current carbon emissions trends, it shows that things could get out of hand pretty quickly..."
Animation credit: "An update to the famous temperature spiral using future climate projections." Credit: Jay Alder/USGS.
Houston Flooding is a Perfect Storm of Climate Change and Bad Urban Planning. Suddenly the "no zoning!" provisions seem like more of a bug than a feature, according to Grist: "...One likely cause,” Texas’ state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon tells Grist, “is the increase in ocean temperatures from the Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic. That determines how much moisture is in the atmosphere.” As temperatures increase, so does rainfall. But it’s not just the rainfall that is endangering Houston’s citizens — it’s also ecologically irresponsible development. Houston is the only major American city without formal zoning laws. As a result, developers have been free to pave over huge swaths of valuable wetlands that absorb runoff..."
Photo credit: U.S. Army National Guard/1st Lt. Zachary West/Handout via Reuters.
Photo credit: "A Bambi Bucket hanging from a helicopter releases hundreds of gallons of water on to the Stetson Creek Fire near Cooper Landing, Alaska, last year." Photograph: Sgt Balinda O'Neal/AP.
Photo credit: "A herd of bison graze south of Swift Current, Sask. Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, a specialist in food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University, is warning that the Canadian Prairies are extremely vulnerable to climate change." (Bill Graveland CP).
Photo credit: Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters. "A damaged car is pictured Monday after floods in the town of Braunsbach, Germany."
If Climate Scientists Are In It For The Money, They're Doing It Wrong. Here's an excerpt from Ars Technica: "...It's also worth pointing out what they get that money for, as exemplified by a fairly typical program announcement for NSF grants. It calls for studies of past climate change and its impact on the weather—pretty typical stuff. This sort of research could support the current consensus view. But it just as easily might not. It's impossible to tell before the work's done. And that's true for pretty much every scientific funding opportunity—you can't dictate the results in advance. So, even if the granting process were biased (and there's been no indication that it is), there is no way for it to prevent people from obtaining data that poses problems for the current consensus..."
Record-Breaking Heavy Rainfall Events Increased Under Global Warming. Professional climate deniers will tell you otherwise, but the data suggests an increase in extreme rainfall events, worldwide. Here's an excerpt from PIK Research Portal: "Heavy rainfall events setting ever new records have been increasing strikingly in the past thirty years. While before 1980, multi-decadal fluctuations in extreme rainfall events are explained by natural variability, a team of scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research detected a clear upward trend in the past few decades towards more unprecedented daily rainfall events. They find the worldwide increase to be consistent with rising global temperatures which are caused by greenhouse-gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. Short-term torrential rains can lead to high-impact floodings..."
Graphic credit: Lehmann et all, 2015. Climate Crocks has more on global rainfall trends here.