Saturday, July 9, 2016

Strong Storms Possible Both Sunday And Monday

Change In 90+ Degree Days Across The Upper Midwest
Here's an interesting map that the Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM) posted on Friday, showing the change in average 90 degree days summer (June-August) between the 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 climatological averages. While we can see the number of 90 degree days has gone up across parts of northern Minnesota and into the Twin Cities, the number has actually decreased over parts of western and southern Minnesota. Why is this? Here's what IEM had to say: "Much of the map shows negative values meaning a decrease in the number of days. A good portion of this negative area resides in the western progression of the corn and soybean belt. The thought is that the intensified agriculture modulates summer time temperatures."
90 Degree Days So Far This Year

Speaking of 90 degree days, we have hit 90 six times so far this summer here in the Twin Cities, already blowing away the total number of 90s we had last year (four). The warmest day we've seen was 96 back on June 25. St. Cloud has only seen two so far, with Duluth managing to hit it once - back in May!

80th Anniversary of the 1936 Heat Wave

This week marks the 80th anniversary of the worst heat wave in Minnesota history back in 1936, when highs for a good majority of 1-2 weeks were in the 100s across the region. Many of these records still are in place today, and this heat wave brought the warmest high ever record in the Twin Cities - 108 degrees on July 14th. Not only was the warmest temperature on record at the Twin Cities recorded during this stretch, but at St. Cloud (107 on the 13th which is also tied with two days from 1934), Duluth (106 on the 13th), and Rochester (108 on the 14th) as well. The warmest Minnesota temperature on record was also tied in this heat wave, when it reached 114 on July 6th, 1936 in Moorhead.

Here's a recap of the heat wave from Mark Seeley's WeatherTalk blog last week: "It started in southern counties on July 4, 1936 with many observers reporting daytime temperatures over 100F. The Heat Wave spread north over the next 12-15 days. Even northern communities reported temperatures close to 100F, and nighttime temperatures remained in the 80s F in many areas, falling into the 70s F near lakes and in low lying areas. There was no respite from the heat, as many citizens chose to sleep outside. It is estimated that this Heat Wave caused over 900 deaths in Minnesota and at least 5000 deaths across the nation. It was also combined with serious drought."

No Heat Waves, Just Occasional "Heat Spikes"
By Paul Douglas

“I drifted into a summer-nap under the hot shade of July, serenaded by a cicada lullaby, to drowsy-warm dreams of distant thunder” wrote Terri Guillemets.

July is full-frontal summertime with no apologies; the warmest month of the year. In fact this is, historically, the warmest week of the year across Minnesota. We'll see 90s Monday, maybe a few days above 90F in a week, but I still don't see an extended stretch of 90s - or worse.

Dr. Mark Seeley reports July 6-15, 1936 brought incessant, broiling heat across the state. 175 deaths in the Twin Cities were blamed on extreme heat - 760 to 900 heat-related fatalities statewide.

Today looks sticky with enough sunshine to season a thundery, tropical stew. A few T-storms may turn severe later on. Expect 90-95F tomorrow; another run of 90s early next week.

NOAA's GFS model tries to carve out a ridge of hot high pressure over the Midwest by late July, but squirts of cooler, drier, tolerable air continue to dribble out of Canada, preventing any extended, debilitating heat waves close to home for at least the next 2 weeks.

Extended Forecast for Minneapolis

SUNDAY: T-storms, some severe. High 86. Low 73. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.
MONDAY: Stinking hot, feels like 100F. High 92. Low 72. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Warm sun, slightly less humid. High 88. Low 68. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sun, more comfortable. High 83. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine, pleasant. High 81. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Some sun, isolated T-storm. High 85. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
SATURDAY: Sticky sun, passing T-shower. High 87. Low 74. Chance of precipitation 40%. Winds S 10-15 mph.
This Day in Weather History
July 10th

2002: Intense rainfall causes extensive street flooding in St. Cloud. 2.70 inches of rain falls in 1 hour and 45 minutes at St. Cloud State University. People were stranded in their cars and had to be rescued by the fire department.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 10th

Average High: 84F (Record: 106F set in 1936)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1996)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 1.93" set in 2002)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 10th

Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 9:00 PM
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 22 minutes and 44 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~1 mins & 20 secs

*Next Sunrise That Is Before 6 AM: August 3rd (6:01 AM)
*Next Sunset That Is Before 9 PM: July 11th (8:59 PM)
Sunday And Beyond Minnesota Weather Outlook
We'll see warmer temperatures as we head into Sunday, with highs climbing into the mid 80s in the Twin Cities. 90s will be possible across parts of southwest Minnesota, and temperatures could near 100 in parts of northeast South Dakota including Aberdeen and Watertown.

NAM forecast precipitation and clouds every three hours between 7 AM Sunday and 7 AM Monday.

The NAM is hinting at storms across the region during the day on Sunday across the region, a few of which could be on the strong side.

Severe risk Sunday. Dark green - marginal threat. Yellow - slight threat. Orange - enhanced threat.
The region is under a risk of severe weather Sunday, with large hail and damaging winds possible. As we head into the evening and overnight hours, there is an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across northwest Minnesota with a line of storms moving through. Damaging winds will be the main threat in this region, with hail and tornadoes back into North Dakota during Sunday afternoon/evening.

Severe risk Monday. Dark green - marginal threat. Yellow - slight threat.

With that warm front continuing to move east, severe weather will be possible across much of Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes will be possible before everything merges into a line, more capable of damaging winds during the evening.

We'll continue to warm up heading into early next week before a cool front moves through, knocking temperatures down into the 70s by the end of the week. Long term forecasts show a start warm up heading into the third full week of July, with the potential of 90-95+ temperatures by the 19th.

National Forecast Outlook And Stories

NAM forecast precipitation and clouds every three hours between 7 AM Sunday and 7 AM Monday.
In addition to the storms over the Northern Plains, we'll be watching for some showers and storms across the Northeast, Southeast and into the Northwest on Sunday.

What is interesting in the Northwest will be the temperatures along with the precipitation, which will be a good 10-30 degrees below average for this time of year. There's the potential that, in higher elevation areas across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, some snow may be possible Sunday Night.

Severe risk Sunday. Dark green - marginal threat. Yellow - slight threat. Orange - enhanced threat.
Besides the hail, wind and tornado threat across the Northern Plains, hail and wind may be possible in parts of the Central Plains with any storms that go severe during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms capable of damaging winds will also be possible in the Southeast.
Excessive Rain To Begin July
It's been a very wet start to the month of July from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Every red dot is an official NWS climate location that, over the first eight days of July, has already seen at least three inches of rain this month.
Here are rainfall totals so far this month for some of those select cities. All of these cities have seen over 5" of rain so far this month - from Wichita, KS to Atlantic City, NJ - and some are quickly approaching the some of the wettest Julys on record. If the month were to have ended on Friday, here's where these rainfall totals would rank in wettest Julys on record:
  • Wichita, KS: 7th wettest
  • Columbia, MO: 13th wettest
  • Paducah, KY: 16th wettest
  • New Bern, NC: 21st wettest
  • Atlantic City, NJ: 24th wettest
  • Kansas City, MO: 28th wettest
  • Bowling Green, KY: 39th wettest
Fort McMurray Fire Costliest Canadian Natural Disaster On Record

Satellite image of Fort McMurray fire back on May 4th. Image: NASA.The Insurance Bureau of Canada said on Thursday that the wildfire back in May in northern Alberta (in the Fort McMurray area) is now "the costliest insured natural disaster in Canadian history" with damage estimated at $3.58 billion. The previous Canadian costliest natural disaster was $1.7 billion from the 2013 southern Alberta floods. Climate Central has more: "The wildfire, which ignited May 1 in eastern Alberta and was brought under control on July 5, forced Canada’s largest-ever evacuation. It scorched more than 1.4 million acres and destroyed 2,400 homes and other buildings in and around Fort McMurray, the hub of Canada’s oil sands industry."
Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget you can follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
-D.J. Kayser

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