December 24, 1982: Heavy rain falls over the state, along with slushy snow over southwest Minnesota. Twin Cities gets 2.61 inches of precipitation through Christmas. Some lightning and thunder occur with the heavy rain on Christmas Eve.
March-like: Ice, Rain and Thunder on Christmas Day
We will wake up to a white Christmas, for the first time in 3 years. But Santa needs to hurry up; by midday tomorrow he may have to ditch the sleigh and finish his route on a cherry-red wave runner.
According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service Sunday's heavy rain will be only the third significant Christmas Day rain event in recent decades. Not as wet as the 2.6 inches of water that fell on December 25, 1982, but an inch of liquid water may soak the MSP metro area Christmas Day, melting snow, clogging drains and slowing traffic.
Rain freezing on contact will ice up roads in the morning; by late afternoon the atmosphere may be unstable enough for T-storms with temperatures in the 40s. I know, bizarre.
A Blizzard Watch is posted for the Dakotas, with over a foot of snow for far northwestern Minnesota by Monday. Serious icing is possible from Alexandria to Brainerd and Duluth.
No travel problems today, and next week's cold front almost looks reasonable, compared to -20F on Sunday. Models hint at 35-40F on New Year's Eve.
Wishing you and yours a Merry Christmas!
GFS Future Radar guidance above: Tropicaltidbits.com.
Christmas Day Snowfall Potential. The loop above shows GFS guidance and I suspect it's on the right track: blizzard conditions for the Dakotas and the Red River Valley with white-out conditions Sunday into Monday. A few inches may fall over central Minnesota with mostly rain south and east of St. Cloud. Map: Tropicaltidbits.com.
Aeris Weather Briefings: Issued Friday, December 23, 2016.
* Flash Flood Watch for Los Angeles; greatest risk is to burn areas - enhanced risk of flooding and mudslides.
* Christmas Day ice storm for Upper Mississippi Valley; heavy rain may spark minor flooding on highways and streams.
* Blizzard conditions possible across the Dakotas and far northwestern Minnesota Sunday into Monday morning.
* Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out over the central Plains Sunday afternoon.
* Typhoon Nock-ten heading toward Philippines; Manila may see Category 1-2 impact on Christmas Day with torrential rains and power outages.
Summary: from flooding rains across California to heavy mountain snows over the Rockies, to Christmas Day ice across Minnesota and Wisconsin to blizzard conditions over the Dakotas by Sundayand a possible tornado outbreak over the central Plains, the latest storm pushing across the USA promises significant travel and facility disruptions timed for the holiday weekend. Meanwhile the Philippines is bracing for a potentially damaging typhoon, scheduled to track very close to Manila on Christmas Day.
Paul Douglas, Senior Meteorologist, AerisWeather
|RELATED||Record-Warm Autumn Solidifies 2nd-Hottest Year for U.S.|
2016 Is Days Away from Sealing Record-Hot Spot
Record Highs Could Outpace Lows 15-to-1
Those record-hot places can be found from coast to coast. They include medium-sized cities like Asheville, N.C., Modesto, Calif., and Flint, Mich., as well as lesser-known locales like Neosho, Mo., Callahan, Calif., and Climax, Colo. While some of the heat was driven by the super El Niño earlier this year, that alone doesn’t explain all the records being set, particularly in the latter half of the year after El Niño faded. Climate change has caused the U.S. average temperature to increase about 1.5°F since the 1880s..."
Animation credit: "Weather stations in the U.S. that are having a warmer than normal, colder than normal and record hot year."
Arctic Temperatures Soar to 30C Above Normal. That's close to 50F warmer than average. No, this isn't normal or "average". And what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. Here's an excerpt from Canada's CBC: "...In fact, models — which Scambos says are "fairly generous" — anticipate an ice-free Arctic by the 2050s or 2060s, though it could happen sooner. "There's an inertia to the climate system," Scambos said. "We still are not seeing the world we're in for." David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada , said that instead of the air flow moving west to east, as it typically does, patterns are changing. Now there is more of a north-south interaction where warm air moves up from the south. However, the northern air can also dip further down, as we saw the past two weeks with unusually cold temperatures across the country. The change in air flow can cause the wild swings we are seeing more often. In this case, warm air over Greenland and Norway is being pulled up to the Arctic, causing the unusual weather..."
Photo credit: "The Arctic climate is changing, alarming climatologists." (CBC)
Image credit: Climate Reanalyzer.
Image credit: "
Image credit: "In this educational film, researchers explain the dangers residents face living near the area of the Campi Flegrei volcano, near the Italian city of Naples." (YouTube/UPStrat-MAFA)
A Good Investment? Yale Environment 360 has more perspective.
Photo credit: Inhabitat.com. "The fossil fuel tax is expected to bring in between 200 to 300 million euros ($220 to 440 million) of funding for the project."
CHRISTMAS DAY: Icy start. Gusty, heavy rain, thunder. Winds: SE 20-40. High: 43
MONDAY: Gusty winds, flurries taper with falling temperatures. Winds: NW 20-40+ Wake-up: 31. High: 34
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, seasonably chilly. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 18. High: 29
WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, milder. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 21. High: 35
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few flakes. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 22. High: 27
FRIDAY: Plenty of sunshine, good travel. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 16. High: 26
Photo credit: "Scientists hold signs during a rally in conjunction with the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2016, in San Francisco." (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez).
Photo credit: Bethany Legg via Unsplash.
Photo credit: "The energy system and the tax system have got to be simplified in a way that everybody understands and doesn’t allow the wealthy few to completely rig the system," says Hansen."
Nordhaus recently updated DICE. He published results of an early test-drive of it this week in a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, titled “Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies.” Readers of recent headlines might be forgiven for assuming the “era of minimal climate policies” referred to is about the next four years. In fact, Nordhaus suggests, the “minimal policy” era is the one we’re currently in. (Nordhaus couldn’t be reached for comment.) The paper’s findings “pertain primarily to a world without climate policies, which is reasonably accurate for virtually the entire globe today,” he writes. “The results show rapidly rising accumulation of CO2, temperature changes, and damages...”
Photo credit: "Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand, one of the glaciers whose retreat is almost certainly linked to global warming." Credit: Christopher Chan/flickr
Beliefs About Climate Change May Reflect a Failure to Understand What Climate Change Is. Here's a snippet from Forbes: "...The researchers found that over the 50 year period, temperatures that favored local warming at a rate higher than would be expected to occur by chance were recorded at 49% of the weather stations included in the study. An additional 10% of the weather stations recorded temperatures that favored local cooling. Changes in local weather were reliably correlated with people’s belief about climate change. People who live in areas that have experienced more record high temperatures than lows are likely to believe climate change is happening. Conversely, people who live in areas that have experienced more record lows than highs are likely to believe climate change is not real..."
Map credit: "Temperature change in the US compared to average temperatures from 1901 to 1960." Credit NASA